Pemodelan dan Peramalan Deret Waktu Studi Kasus: Suhu Permukaan Laut di Selatan Jawa Timur

Hutomo Atman Maulana, Muliah Muliah, Maria Zefaya Sampe, Farrah Hanifah

Abstract


The sea surface temperature is one of the important components that can determine the potential of the sea. This research aims to model and forecast time series data of sea surface temperature by using a Box-Jenkins method. Data in this research are the sea surface temperatures in the South of East Java (January 1983-December 2013) with sample size of 372. 360 data will be used for modeling which is from January 1983 to December 2012, and data in 2013 will be used for forecasting. Based on the results of analysis time series, the appropriate models is SARIMA(1,0,0) (1,0,1)12 where can be written as Yt = 0,010039 + 0,734220Yt−1 + 0,014893Yt−12 − (0,734220)(0,014893)Yt−13 + 0,940726et−12 with  MSE of 0.07888096.

Keywords: Sea surface temperature, time series, Box-Jenkins method


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15548/mej.v1i2.26
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References


Box and Jenkins. 2008. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control Revised Edition, Oakland, California :

Holden-Day. Cryer, Jonathan D. and Kung-Sik Chan. 2008. Time Series Analysis with Ap- plications in R, Second Edition, Iowa City : Springer.

Lidiawati, L., 2014, Dinamika dan Variabilitas Upwelling di Perairan Selatan Jawa Timur, Disertasi, Program Studi Doktor Sains Kebumian, Institut Teknologi Bandung.

Ningsih, N. S., S. Hadi, I. Sofian, Kunarso, dan F. Hanifah, 2012, Kajian Dampak Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Dinamika Upwelling sebagai Dasar untuk Memperkirakan Pola Migrasi Ikan Tuna di Perairan Selatan Jawa – Nusa Tenggara Barat dengan Menggunakan Model Transpor Temperatur Laut. Laporan Riset dan Inovasi KK. Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung.


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Ruang Jurnal Program Studi Tadris Matematika
Fakultas Tarbiyah dan Keguruan
Universitas Islam Negeri Imam Bojol Padang
email: mej.uinibpadang@gmail.com

 

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