PEMODELAN PENALIZED SPLINE FAKTOR SOSIAL EKONOMI TERHADAP KEMISKINAN DI JAWA TIMUR
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh faktor sosial ekonomi terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Timur menggunakan pendekatan penalized spline regression. Model ini dipilih karena mampu menangkap hubungan non-linear antara variabel prediktor dan respon secara fleksibel. Tiga variabel utama yang dianalisis adalah Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka, Rata-rata Lama Sekolah, dan Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. Evaluasi model dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai Generalized Cross Validation (GCV), koefisien determinasi (R²), dan waktu komputasi pada berbagai kombinasi titik knot dan parameter penalti (λ). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik diperoleh dengan tiga titik knot dan λ sebesar 0,001, menghasilkan GCV terendah (3,073) dan R² tertinggi (90,92%). Pengujian hipotesis secara simultan dan parsial mengindikasikan bahwa rata-rata lama sekolah merupakan faktor yang paling signifikan memengaruhi kemiskinan. Meskipun kompleksitas komputasi meningkat seiring bertambahnya jumlah knot, hasil prediksi model tetap stabil dan akurat. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa pendekatan penalized spline efektif untuk menganalisis isu sosial ekonomi yang bersifat dinamis dan kompleks, serta dapat menjadi dasar pengambilan kebijakan yang lebih berbasis data.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15548/map.v7i2.11241
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