PEMODELAN SVEIR DAN STRATEGI VAKSINASI UNTUK KONTROL PENYEBARAN MUMPS (GONDONGAN)
Abstract
Mumps atau gondongan adalah penyakit menular yang disebabkan oleh virus paramyxovirus yang menyerang kelenjar ludah. Meskipun dapat dicegah melalui vaksinasi MMR (Measles, Mumps, Rubella), kasus gondongan masih ditemukan di Indonesia, khususnya di DKI Jakarta. Penelitian ini memodelkan dinamika penyebaran gondongan menggunakan model SVEIR (Susceptible, Vaccinated, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) serta menganalisis efektivitas strategi kontrol vaksinasi berbasis prinsip minimum Pontryagin. Model ini mencakup interaksi antar kompartemen populasi rentan, terpapar, terinfeksi, sembuh, dan divaksinasi. Simulasi dilakukan dengan menggunakan data populasi aktual DKI Jakarta yang diasumsikan sebesar 11 juta jiwa berdasarkan publikasi BPS tahun 2024, untuk merepresentasikan kondisi riil wilayah perkotaan padat penduduk. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan kontrol vaksinasi optimal menurunkan jumlah kumulatif individu terinfeksi hingga 90,9%, dari 207.407 individu tanpa kontrol menjadi 18.870 dengan kontrol. Jumlah populasi rentan juga berkurang sebesar 88,7%, mencerminkan efektivitas vaksinasi dalam memutus rantai penularan. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa strategi kontrol vaksinasi berbasis model matematika efektif mengurangi dampak epidemi gondongan di DKI Jakarta dan dapat digunakan sebagai rekomendasi untuk peningkatan cakupan vaksinasi serta kebijakan pengendalian penyakit menular.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
C. Ferrari dkk., “Questionable Immunity to Mumps among Healthcare Workers in Italy—A Cross-Sectional Serological Study,” Vaccines (Basel), vol. 12, no. 5, Mei 2024, doi: 10.3390/vaccines12050522.
J. Tappe, J. Leung, A. D. Mathis, S. E. Oliver, dan N. B. Masters, “Characteristics of reported mumps cases in the United States: 2018–2023,” Vaccine, vol. 42, no. 25, Nov 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.07.044.
P. A. Achdiat, Yunitasari, H. A. Usman, dan R. H. Maharani, “A Case of Genital and Extragenital Warts Unresponsive to Immunotherapy Using Measles, Mumps, Rubella Vaccine,” Int Med Case Rep J, vol. 16, hlm. 739–746, 2023, doi: 10.2147/IMCRJ.S426665.
S. Sato, S. Ono, Y. Sasabuchi, K. Uemura, dan H. Yasunaga, “Changes in the mumps vaccine coverage and incidence of mumps before and after the public subsidization program: A descriptive study using a population-based database in Japan,” Am J Infect Control, Jan 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.ajic.2024.09.011.
Y. C. Chee dan B. H. Ong, “Mumps encephalitis with bilateral hippocampal lesions preceding parotitis,” Neurol Clin Pract, vol. 9, no. 6, hlm. 475–477, Des 2019, doi: 10.1212/CPJ.0000000000000665.
K. Rhie dkk., “Factors associated with mumps meningitis and the possible impact of vaccination,” Korean J Pediatr, vol. 59, no. 1, hlm. 24–29, Jan 2016, doi: 10.3345/kjp.2016.59.1.24.
M. Masarani, H. Wazait, dan M. Dinneen, “Mumps orchitis,” 2006. [Daring]. Tersedia pada: www.hpa.org.uk/infections/topics_az/mumps/data_reg_age.htm]
A. Al-Balasi dan D. Omer, “Catastrophic Bilateral Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss Due to Mumps: Report of Two Cases,” Turkish Journal of Ear Nose and Throat, vol. 33, no. 4, hlm. 128–130, 2023, doi: 10.26650/Tr-ENT.2023.1327190.
R. Widayat, N. Nadzifah, V. F. Fiqiyah, dan N. Rizkiyani, “Stability Analysis for the Spread of Mumps Based on SIQR Model,” Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi, vol. 20, no. 1, hlm. 24–40, Sep 2023, doi: 10.20956/j.v20i1.27060.
BPS, “Statistik Potensi Desa Kabupaten Gunungkidul 2024,” https://gunungkidulkab.bps.go.id/id/publication/2024/12/16/e1559373115a9f74a1b8dc69/statistik-potensi-desa-kabupaten-gunungkidul-2024.html.
Y. A. Adi dan Suparman, “An investigation of Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) tuberculosis model dynamics with pseudo-recovery and psychological effect,” Healthcare Analytics, vol. 6, Des 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100361.
N. Principi dan S. Esposito, “Mumps outbreaks: A problem in need of solutions,” 1 Juni 2018, W.B. Saunders Ltd. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2018.03.002.
N. P. N. Hendayanti dan M. Nurhidayati, “Klasifikasi Tingkat Keparahan Kemiskinan Provinsi di Indonesia dengan Analisis Diskriminan,” Math Educa Journal, vol. 5(1), 2021, Diakses: 19 Januari 2025. [Daring]. Tersedia pada: https://ejournal.uinib.ac.id/jurnal/index.php/matheduca/article/view/2510
S. Rubin, M. Eckhaus, L. J. Rennick, C. G. G. Bamford, dan W. P. Duprex, “Molecular biology, pathogenesis and pathology of mumps virus,” Journal of Pathology, vol. 235, no. 2, hlm. 242–252, Jan 2015, doi: 10.1002/path.4445.
I. Siramaneerat dan F. Agushybana, “Inequalities in immunization coverage in Indonesia: a multilevel analysis,” Rural Remote Health, vol. 21, no. 3, hlm. 6348, Agu 2021, doi: 10.22605/RRH6348.
S. Widada dkk., “Annual Report Immunization 2022,” 2022.
Kemenkes RI, “Komunikasi Nasional Strategi Imunisasi,” 2022. Diakses: 19 Januari 2025. [Daring]. Tersedia pada: https://ayosehat.kemkes.go.id/buku-strategi-komunikasi-nasional-imunisasi-2022-2025
D. Suhika, R. Saragih, D. Handayani, dan M. Apri, “Optimal control strategies based on extended Kalman filter in mathematical models of COVID-19,” International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, vol. 14, no. 6, hlm. 6300–6312, Des 2024, doi: 10.11591/ijece.v14i6.pp6300-6312.
D. Suhika, “Efektivitas Skrining Genetik dalam Pengendalian Talasemia Beta Mayor di Indonesia Menggunakan Kontrol Backstepping,” Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 4, no. 2, hlm. 108–118, 2024.
Y. Peng dkk., “Estimating the Transmissibility of Mumps: A Modelling Study in Wuhan City, China,” Front Med (Lausanne), vol. 8, Agu 2021, doi: 10.3389/fmed.2021.683720.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15548/map.v7i2.12409
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.