ANALYSIS OF MALARIA CASES SPREAD IN EAST NUSA TENGGARA PROVINCE USING SIR AND BYM2 MODEL

Bagus Kusuma, Elza Ully Tiara Tampubolon, Aisyah Affandi

Abstract


Malaria is an infectious disease that remains a public health problem in East Nusa Tenggara Province (NTT). Fluctuations in the number of cases and disparities in distribution between regions indicate that malaria in NTT is not only prevalent, but also has an uneven risk pattern. This condition emphasizes the need for spatial-based analysis that can identify priority areas and contributing risk factors. This study aims to analyze the spatial pattern of malaria distribution using the Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) method and the Besag-York-Mollié 2 (BYM2) model. Secondary data were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of NTT Province in 2023, covering 22 districts/cities. The independent variables used include population density, poverty rate, unemployment rate, average length of schooling, clean water sanitation, final disposal sites (TPA), and human development index (HDI). The analysis results show that the areas with a high risk of malaria transmission based on SIR are East Sumba (SIR = 18.7) and Southwest Sumba (SIR = 11.5). The BYM2 model confirms that poverty and the existence of landfills have a significant effect on malaria transmission, while other variables do not show a significant effect. These findings emphasize the importance of policy interventions focused on poverty reduction and improved environmental management to control malaria in NTT.


Keywords


Malaria; Standardized Incidence Ratio; BYM2 model; spatial; East Nusa Tenggara

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15548/map.v7i2.12547

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